All Systems Go Part 2 - Gold

Gold fell into the solid longer term buy area this morning in London time. We are currently $923 -
recovering with a potential spike low from $918 to $913.2. Let's see how it pans out from here. I am long at $919.7 looking for the longer term profile NOV08 to assert itself (target $1100). The SEP05 profile is also very bullish, having just moved its longest line up from $663 (target $1400).
When we get the confirmation that we are embarking on the next leg up we can refine the trade etc.
One of the problems with markets is that they don't always do what you want WHEN you want!
But I find these market profiles are excellent at achieving timing with good location.
Good luck!

Update -

Update on positions - flat in everything now, out of gilts, RRS, NXT & my short in £/$ - concentrating on starting to buy Gold which has a potentially very good set up. (see earlier post All Systems Go from May15). Have bought $921 and working $918 buy order.
At this point I would like to clarify something very important - the other day I had the pleasure of attending an on line webinar with a US trader describing his daily routine, set ups and trading style. I was very struck with the notion of time frames on trades - every trader has a different personality with a preference for a a different style which suits different timeframes. I tend to look at trades which develop over days and weeks, rather than intra-day. This US trader was very excited about trading the Russell 2000 on a 3 minute chart, which obviously is a very short term & focussed timeframe. It suits a jumpy, aggressive in and out personality - ducking & diving, bombing & weaving, you've got to be in it to winit! Now this might seem obviously different from the longer term fundamental investment manager type approach, but you would be suprised how many long term views are expressed with short term pain thresholds! I have been guilty many times & it was probably my greatest breakthrough as a trader to finally understand the importance of timeframe to all trades. You have to match your personality & preferences with the market's action and run risk /reward scenarios that make sense in the timeframe of the trade.
happy days ...
the Objective analyser

TA perspective on sterling gold price

Sterling gold has some potentially positive technicals:
1. Yesterday it held the 200 day moving average
2. £565 low was a 49% retracement of Oct08-Feb09 rally - very close to a fibonacci 50% support level
3. The rally from £427 to £698 was impulsive & 1.63x which is another fibonacci multiple. The correction has been a 3 wave overlapping slow move
4.There is some bullish RSI divergence over the last few days - a sign of lack of downside momentum - and a possible reversal back up
5. From a market profile perspective the mathematical average of the Oct08 profile is £562.5, the market's longest line (where the market thinks the average should be ) is around £600 - so if the market is right, the gold price would have to rally to £773 to balance the demand/supply creating a balanced distribution with new mathematical midpoint at £600. I would expect this to be a fast, impulsive upmove taking the dollar price up to my $1100 objective.
happy trading.........
the objective one

Sterling Gold - is it a BUY yet?

The sterling Gold price has been falling as sterling has rallied 22% against the dollar, so we have been in a correction phase which I expect to come to an end soon.
The chart support comes in from £570 to £550 which
should be great location for resetting longs, looking for a move back to the highs around £700 as Gold rallies & outpaces the currency drag effect.
GBP/USD 1.6660 was a 50% bounce from the Aug08
down move - a short covering rally that should be complete now. Any problems going forward for the dollar ( and there are plenty) should be replicated with the UK as well, so I expect the big trend moves in cable are over and 1.40 - 1.65 range is a realistic consolidation range.
happy trading ..........

quick review of my trading world

Current positions :
FLAT in Gold , waiting for longer term levels to get long again $930 down to $918 level.
SHORT Randgold Resources, overbought & completed Up-profile from Oct 08 > target 4150
SHORT Next : met short covering target at midpoint of selloff 1660 > longterm trade targets 1100
as long as stays below 1635. Short term Profile looks balanced at 1520 , I am looking for a new distribution to start from this high volume midpoint.
LONG Gilts : This is more a RSI divergence bullish stochastic trade than a profile set up. JUL08
profile is bullish though.
I am fundamentally disposed towards an equity selloff starting again, and bonds having a retracement rally; far too many bears on bonds at the moment.
An interesting aside: I am watching GM trade on the pink sheets - I have a small short position
and it has been fascinating to watch it rally by 100%+ on high volume against all logic. Reading
the posts on google is a lesson in market dynamics & psychology- the emotional level of passion and self-righteousness that stock trading brings out in people! On one side you have the logicians who point out that GM will go to zero because debts far outweigh assets so under bankrupcy law common stockholders will get nothing! On the other side are those who are buying the stock because its going up! For those who wish to live on the edge, you can get your kicks, make money & pick apart the logicians - brilliant! I love markets........
Good trading-

the objective analyser.