Friday 15 May 2009

All systems go for Gold

Some very interesting things are happening in the Gold market. The short, medium, and long term are all slotting into alignment in a bullish set up. This is an unusual situation as it is far more normal to have one time frame working in the opposite direction of the others. It is also favourable that the news coverage has abated and gold has taken a back seat to the equity rally, bank stress tests etc.
Nevertheless from a pure profile point of view, just looking at the demand supply imbalances, the short term as represented by the April 20 date for starting the profile is bullish above $913 with a target at $960 .
The next timeframe is the bearish move from the Feb09 top -this profile is now bottom heavy and bullish above $919 with a minimum target of $936. So the recent correction is seen as over. Medium term Nov08 up profile is also solidly bullish with a target of $1111 - probably within the next 6 months. The move since November has also served to turn the bearish profile from the Mar08 high bullish, so the big correction from that first move above $1000 is also over. That now has a target of slightly above $1100 as well.
Finally, the biggest battle at the moment in the Gold market is close to resolving itself. The long term Sept05 profile has been developing 2 competing longest lines - at $663 and right here $920. If $920 takes over which is happening (and will be confirmed by June), then it lifts the lid on the upside, with a target of $1400 as the Sep05 profile becomes an unbalanced profile rather than a balancing & mean reverting one.
Happy trading .

the objective analyser

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